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7月6日消息 周三A股三大指数开盘涨跌各异,早盘沪指低开后走弱跌超1%回补缺口,深成指、创业板指冲高后回落翻绿,创业板指曾一度涨超1%;午后市场跌幅进一步扩大,创业板指跌幅扩大至2%,尾盘A股止跌并小幅反弹。
截至收盘,沪指跌1.43%,报3355.35点,深成指跌1.25%,报12811.33点,创业板指跌0.79%,报2802.72点,科创50指数涨0.99%。沪深两市合计成交额10866.4亿元,为连续第10个交易日超1万亿元;北向资金实际净卖出13.82亿元。两市60股涨停(含ST股),19股跌停。
行业板块方面,半导体、电子化学品、纺织服装、汽车零部件、专用设备等涨幅居前,煤炭行业、化肥行业、旅游酒店、石油行业、采掘行业等板块跌幅靠前;题材方面,汽车一体化压铸、机器人、机器视觉、汽车零部件、国产芯片、工业母机、LED、PCB等概念活跃。
机器人概念再度走高,巨轮智能、金智科技、雷赛智能、雷柏科技、新时达、江苏北人、咸亨国际、科力尔、中大力德涨停,机器人、海得控制等大涨;
机器视觉概念受提振,矩子科技、合锻智能、哈工智能、汉王科技涨停,新股凌云光涨超50%;
汽车零部件板块反弹,天成自控、沪光股份、南方精工、路畅科技、天成自控、浙江仙通涨停,另外整车股江铃汽车同样封板;
半导体芯片板块升温,亚翔集成、华亚智能、概伦电子、瑞芯微、德明利、中瓷电子涨停;
钒电池概念分化,攀钢钒钛、银龙股份涨停,西部矿业、安宁股份、上海电力等回调;
阿兹夫定概念午后异动,华润双鹤拉升封板,奥翔药业、拓新药业、三木集团、新华制药均大幅冲高;
纺织服装板午后走高,龙头股份、酷特智能封板,宏达高科此前涨停,盛泰集团、华纺股份、梦洁股份、开润股份等跟涨;
国际油价暴跌,石油行业、油气设服板块走弱,新潮能源、中国海油、广汇能源、中曼石油等不同程度下跌;
航运港口板块大跌,中远海能、招商南油跌停,招商轮船、厦门港务、中谷物流等跌幅居前;
煤炭行业领跌,山煤国际、晋控煤业跌停,上海能源、兰花科创、华阳股份跌超5%;
个股方面,完成重整,恒康医疗复牌连续3日涨停;
上半年净利同比预增864.36%-1343.25%,合金投资涨停;
预计上半年净利同比增加161.93%左右,景业智能涨停;
上半年净利同比预增184.95%-241.94%,东贝集团涨停;
携手蓝晓科技开发盐湖提锂产业化项目,智慧农业涨停;
拟定增募资不超过15亿元,穗恒运A涨停;
拟定增募资不超5亿元,矩子科技涨停;
进军新能源电池领域,鑫科材料涨停;
前期妖股中通客车、浙江世宝复牌,股价双双跌停。
【机构策略】
巨丰投顾:目前市场逐步演绎从反弹变反转的行情,沪指在两个月内连续突破3000、3100、3200、3300、3400点4道整数关口,随时可能展开强势震荡。市场结构性行情的特征并未发生改变,成长股与价值股此起彼伏,投资者可以把握板块轮动的机会。另外,业绩窗口期来临,要注意股价和业绩增速是否匹配,市场的效率越来越高,即便业绩超预期,也不可轻易追高。
广州万隆:布局方向上,可以重视中小盘绩优股,特别是目前进入7月份的中报炒作时间窗口。传统中报涨价题材化工今年更搭上新能源的助攻,关注锂电光伏上游磷、氟、硅、钛白粉等;新能源绿电方向继续关注补涨的钒电池和储能;新能源车关注问界产业链。
天鼎证券:本轮行情的核心-机构赛道板块反转向上,行情中线向上趋势不改、积极把握;7月中报披露窗口打开,建议持续重点把握锂电池、稀土永磁、磷化工、煤炭等中报行情炒作。
中原证券:建议投资者短线关注医疗服务、电网设备、农牧饲渔以及部分周期行业的投资机会,中线继续关注低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。
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云南锗业吧(002428)
云南锗业吧
8.740.212.46%
帖子数2篇
龙五饕餮2019
影响力注册时长1.3年
发表于 06-14 16:21 来自Android版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 今天 12:38
已答谁能说说锗的用途?今天尾盘买了点,锗是不是比稀土都珍贵?
风流倜傥之文状元
影响力注册时长1个月
发表于 今天 09:56 来自iPhone版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 今天 09:58
已答
渔翁之利
影响力注册时长3个月
发表于 06-15 21:00 来自Android版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 21:01
已答
持有云南锗业,等待重组。
小赚一点就够
影响力注册时长1.8年
发表于 06-15 20:54 来自Android版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 20:54
已答
锂电池后面出现的锗锡电池,解决了充电慢和安全问题,替代的理由很充分。
艾瓷尚家居
影响力注册时长3.8年
发表于 06-14 14:39 来自股吧网页版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 20:43
已答这次应该是真套了,哈哈,幸好走了下周谁能出来
猛子5919
影响力注册时长6.7年
发表于 06-15 13:32 来自Android版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 16:03
已答
是不是13N要下来了,知道的分析下!
瞎折腾68
影响力注册时长1.6年
发表于 06-15 13:03 来自Android版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 13:05
已答
002428成本10.5后市如何操作,谢谢
初晨的那缕阳光
影响力注册时长2.5年
发表于 06-14 11:35 来自iPhone版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 11:31
已答好股
金锦程茜
影响力注册时长6.2年
发表于 06-14 14:46 来自iPhone版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 11:16
已答
星期一补跌!这套路看多了。
喜欢坐轿的小韭菜
影响力注册时长6个月
发表于 06-15 10:57 来自Android版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 10:58
已答
黑三兵并不黑!红三兵转黑!技术指标,K线型态正是主力骗线法宝!专骗技术派
bkx1987
影响力注册时长5.3年
发表于 06-14 11:53 来自iPhone版
帖子审核中,仅自己可见
更新于 06-15 10:55
已答
这不就是正宗的稀有金属吗?美国0产量,70%靠中国出口,就是干!
龙头股一决
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发表于 06-14 13:39 来自股吧网页版
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更新于 06-15 08:54
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002428吸收合并无限制469
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发表于 06-15 00:45 来自iPhone版
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更新于 06-15 00:45
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国家意志,关停散零小,小金属价格一路上扬,
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在美联储“*加息”的次日,周四美股市场再度出现单日大跌行情,道琼斯指数跌2.42%,标普500指数收跌3.24%均深陷熊市区域,纳斯达克综合指数跌4.08%道指失守3万点关口。不过周五的A股市场再度上演“独立性行情”,全天呈现低开高走态势,截至收盘,上证指数涨0.96%收复3300点,深证成指涨1.48%,创业板指涨2.77%。
近期美股道琼斯指数及A股上证指数(紫色)对比
值得关注的是,近期美股市场接连大跌,但A股却频频单日上演低开高走或者V字走势。数据显示,4月21日以来,道琼斯指数累计下跌近15%,而沪指累涨5.26%,深成指累涨8.24%,创业板指累涨12.42%。
在美股近期的十次大跌的次个A股交易日,仅有三次出现A股三大指数全线收跌的情况,同时也伴随着北向资金的多次大幅净流入。详情见下图:
对于A股独立性行情的原因,券商在近期的研报中做出了以下判断。
近日,广发证券指出,近期海外衰退和紧缩预期升温、美股下跌、美债利率上行,均未对A股产生过多负面影响,原因在于政策暖风频吹大幅改善市场对中国经济增长的信心。
海通证券则表示,近期美股明显下跌时A股依然能保持韧性,这背后主要源自于中美两国的经济周期错位,以及中美股市估值所处的位置不同:根据改进版的投资时钟框架,目前美国仍处在经济增长动能下滑而通胀高企的滞胀期,而我国已经处于政策托底经济的衰退后期,因此A股的宏观环境要优于美股。
国联证券认为,欧美股指回调或主要与美国通胀走高,加息预期提升有关,这导致10年期美债利率和美元指数双双走高,风险偏好有所下行。而A股在国内宽松的货币环境与稳增长刺激政策利好下股指反弹。
此前在5月下旬,华鑫证券分析称,A股独立行情的三点原因包括美债收益率冲高回落,对A股压制有所缓解;国内疫情好转,稳增长政策持续发力,积极信号提振市场情绪;热点主题催化,赛道股赚钱效应显现,带动市场情绪回暖。
对于后市,机构也相对积极。
广发证券研判,A股不卑不亢,战略看好价值+小盘成长股。5月以来A股独立行情由主权信用风险下降驱动,中国决策层致力于恢复经济活力。A股由国内因素主导,海外因素仍不可忽视。行业推荐:(1)“旧式”稳增长&;通胀受益链条(地产/消费建材/煤炭);(2)宽信用:受益于民企信用环境逐步改善的小盘成长股如半导体设备等,以及“能源安全”战略下景气催化的油气/新能源如光伏电池组件等;(3)“疫后复苏”线索:制造/出口/消费服务的供需修复如汽车(含新能源车)/商贸零售/医美等。
中金公司称,从短期来看,中国股票相对海外占优,独立行情可能持续。但从中期来看(第四季度到明年),建议配置更谨慎。中国“稳增长”政策出台与经济企稳,可能导致全球范围内“通胀成本再分配”,美欧等国家的货币紧缩幅度增大,衰退的风险进一步上升。海外股指承压,可能制约国内股票的上升空间与持续时间。
东北证券研判,现在处于反弹的冲顶或筑顶阶段,要坚决高低切换。不过大的风险没有,结构性行情还是延续的,不会出现类似2-4月的持续全面下跌;短期指数进一步上行空间有限,这里需要回调或者震荡消化这轮反弹以来的有些行业和个股累积的巨大涨幅压力。
首创证券认为,国内形势边际利好,国外偏利空,综合来看,股市短期偏震荡。不同于前期的一路上涨,近期A股已呈现震荡走势,短期内上涨可能将进入瓶颈期,需等待新的利好出现,国内稳增长落地的效果以及复工复产的持续性将是重要的决定因素。
皮海洲:美联储加息难阻A股独立行情
6月15日,美联储毫无悬念宣布加息75个基点。
就A股市场来说,美联储的加息对A股市场的影响有限,并不影响A股市场走独立行情。毕竟中国经济与美国经济的发展情况不同,这也决定了中国的货币政策与美国也不相同,在美联储加息背景下,虽然也有其他国家跟随美联储步伐也采取了加息的措施,但中国并没有步美联储的后尘。
此前,美联储已经加息两次,分别是3月17日加息25基点;5月5日加息50基点。但中国不仅没有加息,相反还于4月15日宣布,从2022年4月25日起下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点,释放长期资金约5300亿元!基于支持实体经济发展的需要,中国仍然需要保持适度宽松的货币政策。可见,中国的货币政策较之于美国的货币政策,是保持相对独立的,不会盲目地看美元的“脸色”。
货币政策的独立性为A股行情的独立性发展提供了支持。毕竟A股市场是一个以国内投资者为主的市场,国内投资者的资金是A股市场资金的主要来源,而境外机构投资者的资金在A股市场占比较低,这些资金的进出对A股市场的影响不大,因此,这就决定了美联储的货币政策很难对A股市场构成太大的影响。
从A股历史走势来看,虽然A股有时也会受到美股短期走势的影响,但总体来说,A股的走势是独立于美股的。最明显的是美股从2009年3月开始走出了一轮横跨13年的大牛市行情,但A股并没有追随美股的步伐走出这样的牛市。尤其是2015年下半年A股暴跌之后,指数总体处于盘整阶段,上证指数始终处于历史的半山腰,不少个股更是创出了历史新低,或在底部徘徊。所以目前的美股下跌动力充足,但A股却缺少下跌的动力。这也是A股走自己独立行情的重要原因。
事实也确实如此,面对美联储的加息预期,美股从6月8日到6月14日连续下跌5个交易日,其中,9日、10日、13日连续三天大跌。但A股保持着稳步反弹的走势,并没有受到美股走势太大的影响,这其中包括6月14日,在美股13日上演“黑色星期一”走势的情况下,14日早盘A股虽然一度受到影响,但当天走出大“V”走势。可见,面对美联储的加息,A股确实是在走自己的独立行情。A股的这种独立走势让A股有望成为全球股市中的“避风港”。
贺宛男:A股独立行情能走多远?
随着以美股为代表的欧美股市频频下跌,A股则逐级攀高,近期谈论A股独立行情的越来越多,且渐成市场主流。
确实,仅本周前四个交易日,纳指就有两天跌幅超过4%,道指则跌破3万点大关。从去年底今年初*点算起,标普、纳指和道指分别跌去24%、34%和19%,已进入或濒临技术性熊市。
反观A股市场,从今年4月27日创下的低点算起,沪指、深指和创指分别上涨16%、22%和25%,“技术性牛市”的话没敢说出口,心中却时时期盼着。
且不说A股离15年前的6000点高地仅在半山腰,就是一年多前的3731点也还有10%的距离,这波反弹能不能越过3700点,很多人心中没底。但不管怎么说,长期以来A股跟跌不跟涨的“习性”这回确实有所改变。
特别是进入6月以来,12个交易日收出9根阳线,这是很少见的。在笔者看来,原因主要有三。
一是货币政策相对宽松。6月10日央行发布的金融数据显示,M2同比增长11.1%,分别比上月和上年同期高0.6个和2.8个百分点;人民币贷款增加1.89万亿元,同比多增3920亿元;社融增量2.79万亿元,比上年同期多8399亿元。这几个数据均高出预期。特别是1.89万亿贷款中,企业贷款为1.53万亿,其中中长期贷款又增加5551亿元,说明企业对未来发展逐渐有了信心。而2.79万亿社融中,除1.89万亿信贷外,政府债券净融资1.06万亿元,而且相关部门明确宣布,政府专项债6月底前发行完毕,力争在8月底前使用完毕,专项债发行和使用提前,一批基建项目已经和即将开工。
货币宽松不仅表现在“量多”,而且“价低”。5月份银行间同业拆借利率1.5%,质押式债券回购利率为1.47%,均约比上月和上年同期低0.13个和0.6个百分点。在实体经济受益的同时,受资金推动的股市自然也颇感“舒适”。
二是在美国5月份CPI高达8.6%,创下40多年来新高,美联储一次性加息75个基点之际,我国同期CPI为2.1%,要知道这是在汽油、柴油和液化石油气价格分别上涨27.6%、30.1%和26.9%的情况下取得的。另一方面,5月份PPI上涨6.4%,比上月回落1.6个百分点。PPI的持续回落,会减轻企业成本端的压力。
值得关注的是,国务院常务会议通常一周开一次。可进入6月份以来,李克强总理分别于6月2日、8日、11日、15日四次主持召开会议,强调“着力保市场主体保就业稳物价,稳住宏观经济大盘。”5月份的数据在“保市场主体保就业稳物价”方面已经有所表现,随着6月份上海等重点地区复工复产,宏观经济大盘应该能“端得”更稳。
三是A股这波行情的主题板块,受政策面暖风劲吹长期向好。
6月15日,统计局发布5月份经济数据,工业增加值同比由4月份的下降2.9%转为增长0.7%,环比增长更达5.61%。其中新能源汽车、 太阳能电池等绿色智能产品产量,同比分别增长108.3%、31.4%。这两大产业的上中下游产业链,正是本轮反弹的主线。随便翻阅一下K线图,新能源车、光伏、风能、绿电等板块涨幅多在30%-50%。一批重仓持有这两大板块的主题基金,已经“满血复活”,从亏损转为盈利50%以上。
工信部6月14日表示,我国新能源汽车累计销量从2012年底的2万辆,大幅攀升到今年5月底的1108万辆,自2015年起,产销量连续7年位居世界第一。就在本周五,生态环境部等7部门联合发文,再提“加快新能源车发展,逐步推动公共领域用车电动化”。并且要求到2030年,大气污染防治重点区域新能源汽车新车销售量,要达到汽车新车销售量的50%左右。而截止今年3月底,我国汽车保有量约3亿辆,其中新能源车891.5万辆,占汽车总量的比例仅为2.90%。中国汽车工业协会预测,2022年中国汽车总销量为2750万辆,其中新能源车500万辆,占比不足 20%。从不足 20%提高到50%,未来的市场空间还大得很!
那么,A股的这波独立行情又能走多远呢?
记得今年2月中旬,也是美股跌,A股涨,当时国际投资机构纷纷唱多A股,高盛团队更是发表了一份长达89页的报告,预计今年MSCI中国指数将上涨16%,因其估值才12倍多,低于华尔街投行14.5倍的市盈率目标。谁知高盛等机构唱多不久,上证指数反而从2月中旬的3400点跌至2863点。由此看来,A股估值低不是走出独立行情的理由,要说估值,港股市场更低。
我们之前的提法一直是稳增长,而今是稳住经济大盘。先要稳住,而后才有增长,才有稳步而坚挺的独立行情。
上周四欧美股市大跌,而A股表现令人折服,出现大涨。而周五晚间,欧美股市再次表现出狼来了的信号。周末消息面相对平静,A股下周还能独善其身,风景这边独好?重点关注以下几点:
第一、本波股市均是在政策性利好的支撑下不断上涨的。周五的上涨也不意外,主要是CPI超预期和社融数据超预期所致。后市继续关注是否有利好支撑政策出台。
第二、北上资金持续不断地净流入A股。在当前位置,外资大幅度买买买,出现持续10个交易日净流入,可以确认当前大盘的底部区域已经形成。后市继续关注外资的流入情况。
第三、欧美股市出现大跌,底层的逻辑是欧美市场通胀超预期,美联储未来的政策需要加息缩表所致。当前美联储加息缩表的时间窗口临近,市场投资者需要保持警惕。
第四、A股目前出现稳健的上涨模式,底层的逻辑就是我们的稳经济政策的持续性出台以及我们对经济增长不搞大水漫灌的原因,所以我们当前的股市策略还是稳。对于大盘来说,当前位置只要不破上涨趋势就坚定持股。
因此,下周大盘重点关注消息面利好能否继续出台、北上资金能否继续保持流入以及当前大盘的趋势能否继续保持。对于外围股市的影响,可以适当做参考。但是,下周是美联储议息会议的时间节点,投资者还是得保持谨慎。
股市有风险,投资需谨慎!
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